Insights

What Does 'Feasible' Mean for Cultural Infrastructure Projects Today?

for The Platform
January 2021
作者:Adrian Ellis, Libby Ellis, Harry Fisher-Jones, Daniel Payne和Natalia Vartapetova

Every year, AEA跟踪新完成和宣布的大型文化基础设施项目——那些资本成本在1000万美元或以上的项目. The 2019 Cultural Infrastructure Index counted 101 new projects, accounting for over $4.7 billion of investment. Early indicators for 2020 suggest a slightly more modest level of investment, but not significantly lower.

These projects require careful planning: they are expensive; have many dimensions of success and therefore of potential failure, and they are (at least in principle) built to last. 在过去的30年里,AEA有幸参与了许多可行性研究, working methodically through a project’s mission, vision, programmatic ambitions and the attendant spatial, operational and organizational implications to establish and, we hope, improve their long-term efficiency and effectiveness. We have learned some things along the way:

  • 任何可行性研究都需要明确潜在的假设和相关的假设概率,这样它们的合理性就可以被公开和检验. 这似乎是显而易见的,但令人惊讶的是,有时你需要深入挖掘才能找到隐含的假设, if wrong, can send everything crashing.
  • Establishing feasibility is an iterative process. 在每个阶段,只有那些与找到关键问题的可靠答案相一致的工作才应该被委托,否则你很容易走错方向. (For example, 不要把钱花在结构工程研究上,除非你知道你的目标是在正确的地方!)
  • 重要的是要弄清楚可行性研究是det365首页“如何”还是“是否”. These are different sorts of exercises. If not clearly stated, your consultants will be answering questions you have not asked, and on your dime.
  • 可行性研究的双重目的是既要进行内部规划,又要进行外部融资担保,这可能会给乐观主义和“扭曲”带来系统性压力.' Adding that spin is the client’s prerogative and sometimes their duty. The consultant should be neither systematically optimistic nor pessimistic.

AEA在资本项目上的工作往往侧重于财务和运营可行性. Other experts – design and theatre consultants, cost consultants, 筹款顾问-帮助了解项目的可行性,以实现其设计和技术雄心, projecting costs required for the full cycle of the capital project, or developing potential funding sources and strategies.

The array of expertise required is expanding. 今天的环境增加了一些挑战性的问题,需要在“可行性”的一般标题下提出。. The COVID-19 pandemic and social distancing, climate emergency and C02 emissions, 而其他社会和技术变革也提出了新的问题,这些问题对项目的长期成功同样至关重要. Last September, Arts Council England published an Arts and Placeshaping: Evidence Review, 说明了以文化为导向的重建和投资可以帮助推动当地经济增长的方式, regenerate struggling high streets and promote social cohesion. 人们越来越希望文化场所成为公民活动和互动的场所, 将社区聚集在一起,促进创新和思想交流——成功和可行性的额外标准. det365首页可以合理地预期,当前的社会和环境变化将把资本项目的重点和数量转向文化组织的公民角色(作为会议场所和公开论坛), serving as sites for experimentation and innovation, and where artistic production can co-exist with community functions, drawing learners of all ages, creative industries, and adjacent health and social care sectors. 下面是一个列表,试图捕捉这些额外的可行性维度.

Location – Site availability and complementarity – or competition – within the existing ecology        

  • 在短期或中期,理想的地点是否面临着气候变化影响的风险增加?
  • Are there other environmental factors?
  • Is the site (re)development the most sustainable option available?

Demand – The needs, character and scale of the intended audience, now and in the future

  • 有多少比例的目标受众——以及文化产品——是本地的、国内的和国际的?
  • What is their propensity to attend in-person programming?
  • 在大流行和最近的技术进步之后,受众及其消费习惯发生了怎样的变化?

Supply – Availability and technical requirements of the product

  • 如何设计价值链和交付模式,以促进更公平的获取和机会?
  • 数字化如何成为整体产品的一个整合和补充元素?
  • 供应链中的某些要素在危机时期特别容易受到破坏吗?

Organizational Design – Governance and staffing structure

  • 需要什么样的系统来嵌入包容性、协作性和反歧视的做法?
  • 灵活和远程工作的趋势能否融入到组织结构和建筑设计中?

Business Model – Income and expenditure projections

  • 固定成本和可变成本之间的关系是什么?商业模式和资产负债表承受冲击的弹性有多大?
  • 收入的产生是否依赖于亲自出席,或者是否有其他额外的收入机会?
  • 在经济衰退期间,公众和慈善机构的支持会受到多大程度的影响?
  • Are there opportunities for mixed and innovative business models, co-ownership?

Physical Design – Massing, areas and adjacencies 

  • How can public space be utilized to encourage greater community engagement?
  • What social and civic purpose and uses could the new building serve? Can it be easily repurposed or adapted, if required?
  • 在设计过程中,应在多大程度上优先考虑空间配置和使用的灵活性?
  • 社会距离措施对流通和容量有何影响?最低可行居住水平是多少?
  • What systems (heating, 可以实施通风和空调)和设计干预措施,以促进健康和福祉,并减轻空气传播感染的传播?

Capital Costs – Hard and soft and strategies to meet them

  • 经济衰退(和社会政治事件)将如何影响建筑成本?
  • 什么可持续/可再生资源可用于建筑建设和维护?
  • What is the most efficient and sustainable approach to procurement?

Impact Assessment – Broader economic, social and environmental implications                                  

  • 项目在发展及运作阶段对环境有何影响, and how can these be mitigated?
  • 工程项目可否全部或部分安置在升级再造或改造后的现有建筑物内? 
  • What is the project’s impact on its host area and community?

Risks and Sensitivities – Uncertainties, risks and mitigating strategies

  • In the current period of uncertainty, what are the key sensitivities affecting the project's viability, and how can these be modeled?
  • What scenarios need to be considered for the project’s long-term sustainability?
  • How can socio-political events impact the availability of resources and costs?

This article was written by a team including Harry Fisher-Jones, Consultant; Natalia Vartapetova, Consultant; Daniel Payne, Managing Principal; Libby Ellis, Director; and Adrian Ellis, Director. 

 

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